THEORY OUT OF TAIWAN & THEORY OUT OF SUNDALAND

The "Theory out of Taiwan" (1997), or the Out-of-Taiwan Hypothesis, is a major scientific model describing the prehistoric expansion of Austronesian-speaking peoples. While the concept had been brewing since the 1970s, it gained significant academic momentum in 1997 through the influential work of archaeologist Peter Bellwood (notably his book Prehistory of the Indo-Malaysian Archipelago, revised 1997).

The theory proposes that the ancestors of modern-day Polynesians, Malaysian, Filipinos, Indonesians, and Malagasy people (of Madagascar) originated from Neolithic farming communities in Taiwan roughly 5,000 years ago.

1. The Core Argument: The "Express Train" to Polynesia

The model is often described as an "Express Train" because of the relatively rapid speed at which these seafaring people moved from Taiwan across the Pacific.

• Origin (c. 5,500–5,000 years ago): Neolithic farmers from Southeast China crossed the Taiwan Strait and settled in Taiwan. They developed advanced maritime technologies and agricultural practices (like rice and millet farming).
• The Departure (c. 4,500–4,000 years ago): Due to population pressure or a search for new land, groups began moving south from Taiwan into the Philippines.
• Expansion (c. 3,500–1,000 years ago): From the Philippines, they branched out east and west, eventually reaching as far as Madagascar to the west and Easter Island to the east.

2. Evidence from Three Disciplines

The 1997 synthesis relied on "triangulating" evidence from three distinct fields:

Field	Key Evidence
Linguistics	Robert Blust (a key collaborator) noted that of the 10 branches of the Austronesian language family,  9 are found only in Taiwan (Formosan languages). The 10th branch (Malayo-Polynesian) covers everyone else. This "diversity rule" suggests Taiwan is the homeland.
Archaeology	The appearance of red-slipped pottery, rectangular stone adzes, and the remains of domesticated pigs and dogs in Philippine sites matches earlier layers found in Taiwan.
Genetics	Early DNA studies (and later, more advanced mitochondrial DNA tests) showed a "genetic trail" linking Pacific Islanders back to indigenous Taiwanese populations.

3. Key Proponents: Bellwood and Blust

The theory is often called the Bellwood-Blust Hypothesis.

• Peter Bellwood: Provided the archaeological framework, linking the spread of farming to the spread of people.
• Robert Blust: Provided the linguistic foundation, demonstrating that the "ancestral" versions of the language were preserved by the indigenous tribes of Taiwan.

4. Why 1997 Was Important

By 1997, Bellwood’s revised publications solidified this into the "mainstream" view. It challenged the "Nusantao" model (proposed by Wilhelm Solheim), which argued that the culture developed through a maritime trading network within Southeast Asia rather than a specific migration out of Taiwan.

5. Modern Status

While the "Out-of-Taiwan" model remains the dominant theory, modern genetics has added complexity. We now know that while the language and culture largely came from Taiwan, the people themselves intermixed heavily with indigenous populations in places like New Guinea (Papuans) as they moved, creating a "slow boat" rather than a simple "express train."

THEORY OUT OF SUNDALAND

While the Out-of-Taiwan (OOT) model is the current academic consensus, the Out-of-Sundaland (OOS) theory offers a provocative alternative that flips the direction of migration.

Proposed primarily by geneticist Stephen Oppenheimer in his 1998 book Eden in the East, the Sundaland theory argues that the "cradle" of Southeast Asian civilization wasn't Taiwan, but a now-sunken landmass in the south.

Comparison: Out-of-Taiwan vs. Out-of-Sundaland

Feature	Out-of-Taiwan (Bellwood/Blust)	Out-of-Sundaland (Oppenheimer)
Origin Point	Taiwan (and previously Southern China).	Sundaland (Sunken shelf connecting Sumatra, Java, Borneo, and Malay Peninsula).
Main Driver	Agriculture: Development of rice/millet farming led to population growth and expansion.	Climate Change: Rapid sea-level rises (post-Ice Age) flooded the Sunda Shelf, forcing people out.
Direction	North to South (Taiwan → Philippines → Indonesia → Pacific).	South to North (Sundaland → Philippines → Taiwan / Mainland Asia).
Timeline	Recent Neolithic (~5,000–4,000 years ago).	Older Pleistocene/Early Holocene (~15,000–7,000 years ago).
Strongest Evidence	Linguistics: Austronesian languages are most diverse in Taiwan.	Genetics: High diversity of ancient mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in Southeast Asia.

Key Arguments for Out-of-Sundaland

Oppenheimer and his supporters argue that the "Express Train" model is too simplistic. Their evidence includes:

• The "Flood" Hypothesis: At the end of the last Ice Age, sea levels rose by roughly 120–150 meters. This drowned a massive continent-sized area (Sundaland). Oppenheimer suggests this cataclysmic event triggered a diaspora of "sea nomads" who carried their culture and genes northward.
• Genetic "Deep Ancestry": Genetic studies (specifically the Haplogroup E marker) show that many indigenous Southeast Asian DNA lineages evolved in situ over 30,000 years, rather than arriving recently from Taiwan.
• The "Nusantao" Network: Archaeologist Wilhelm Solheim proposed a similar idea called the Nusantao Maritime Trading and Communication Network, suggesting that cultural traits (like red-slipped pottery) spread via trade routes rather than a single mass migration.

Why is Out-of-Taiwan still the "Standard"?

Most scholars still favor the Taiwan model because the Linguistic evidence is incredibly hard to ignore.

If the expansion started in Sundaland, we would expect to see the most ancient and diverse Austronesian languages in Indonesia or Malaysia. Instead, 9 out of the 10 original branches of the language family are found only among the indigenous tribes of Taiwan.

The Modern Synthesis: "The Slow Boat"

Today, many scientists believe the truth is a mix of both.

• People were already living in Sundaland for tens of thousands of years (OOS is correct about "deep" genetic roots).
• Culture & Language (Austronesian) arrived from Taiwan about 4,000 years ago and "overlaid" or mixed with the existing populations (OOT is correct about the cultural expansion).

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Google Gemini AI

11 January 2026: 10.24 p.m